In the report I wrote for the Dutch government on M2M (or embedded wireless, or internet of things), quantifying the size of the market for M2M was one of the important issues. Today TomTom published some of its ambitions with real time traffic information and its HD traffic product in a Manifesto. As part of this they give a number of the amount of devices that are GPRS/UMTS enabled: 1.38 million!
If TomTom were a country, it would rank between Gambon and Gabon in terms of active mobile devices or 137th. Its goal is even more ambitious and that is to bring 20 to 25 million devices on the road, which puts it in the range of The Netherlands, Australia and Taiwan, somewhere around 35th to 40th in the world rankings. Yes people, that would mean that TomTom would have more devices in the field than many European mobile companies.
M2M is going to be really big and it will change the relationships between telco's and M2M end users.
Thursday, 30 September 2010
Monday, 20 September 2010
Logica report on switching costs for M2M (by me)
This last year I've worked on one of the most interesting subjects I've ever come across: Switching costs for Machine to Machine users (or embedded wireless as the GSMA calls it). The result is a report for the Dutch Ministry of Economic Affairs. It's about how a simple rule change in who can apply for numbers (E.212 and telephone) could open up a market for M2M communications. It would more or less remove the difference between public and private networks and result in a more flexible market, like we now already see for internet connectivity.
Though I independently came to a solution, I can't claim I've thought of this solution first. That honor goes to at least 2 of my Logica colleagues in the Nordics and the UK or maybe to someone at Stratix consulting, but more likely someone somewhere, elsewhere. I do think I can now claim to have written the first full research in a public document on the subject. It's called "Onderzoek flexibel gebruik MNC's"(downloadable pdf, in Dutch). (and yes please put the links that prove this wrong in the comments, someone must have done this before, but I couldn't find it) :-)
Though I independently came to a solution, I can't claim I've thought of this solution first. That honor goes to at least 2 of my Logica colleagues in the Nordics and the UK or maybe to someone at Stratix consulting, but more likely someone somewhere, elsewhere. I do think I can now claim to have written the first full research in a public document on the subject. It's called "Onderzoek flexibel gebruik MNC's"(downloadable pdf, in Dutch). (and yes please put the links that prove this wrong in the comments, someone must have done this before, but I couldn't find it) :-)
Tuesday, 7 September 2010
Wrote article for Ars Technica on Belgian broadcasters try kneecapping DVRs, demand compensation
I sent in a linktip to Ars Technica and was asked to write it up in English. With a little help from Inside TV International, who had the original letter, it became an interesting post. The short story is: Belgian broadcasters are mad about the use of DVR's in Belgium as it messes up their product, the full evening of TV. Say what? See the link: http://arstechnica.com/tech-policy/news/2010/09/belgian-broadcasters-seeking-to-kneecap-dvrs-want-compensation.ars
Monday, 6 September 2010
Free lesson: KPN Fiber receives a death blow and Reggefiber is left with the mess
If you work in telecoms, read this and learn. This happens if you don't pay attention to detail and just because this is an incumbent doesn't mean it won't happen at your FTTH project. Pay attention or it might cost you your FTTH-dream.
- Fiber isn't always fiber. It's often VDSL2 where the fiber end only goes as far as the start of the neighbourhood. Fair enough, UPC does the same with Fiber Power (Docsis 3.0). But still, people claim they are cheated and the name "KPN Fiber" has now been tainted.
- KPN's sales and billing are completely detached. People are told they will pay 65 Euro a month for the whole package and then find additional costs on the bill. Sales for instance promises a third IP-TV decoder, for which they are charged extra, just to get the sale. Customer service can then mop it up, but doesn't seem to be able to fix things straight away.
- The technician who installs the technology in the home will do it all for a fee of 35 payable to the technician. THIS IS A NO NO. NEVER ALLOW THIS ON YOUR PROJECT. The technician quickly turned it into an extortion racket, a complete con job. He just claims that several things are not on his job list, like the third decoder. Also he says there is no electricity near the fiber drop (in The Netherlands the meter closet) and that that is extra. Everything that isn't on his list is some number at KPN and he can do it for half. Yeah yeah, so pretty soon the charges add up and he walks out with alot more and KPN doesn't need to know about it. Nice huh how people who work for you can F your product. I'm betting as of next week installation is free and KPN doesn't allow any money to be charged at all. The free bit is only because fixing the billing system to work with a 35 euro charge is more expensive than just giving installation away for free.
- KPN uses a product it calls wireless to deliver the IPTV in the home. Of course it isn't wireless, it's actually some version of Powerline communications, probably Homeplug (I didn't Google it). Branded with KPN's logo, it doesn't actually perform as expected. Speeds are low. It isn't really wireless and brings unsightly plugs in the home. The nasty thing is that sales pushes it hard... probably to shift inventory and customer service tells people it is a lousy product. Yes, that's right KPN customer service knows its a rotten product and tells its customers so.
- KPN's IP-TV service mine is shown on TV as malfunctioning. It doesn't do HD-TV at one customer and at an other the pause function is malfunctioning. It's not a nice picture. My wife asked me if it didn't do the same at our home, but that happened to be the DVB-T service of KPN called Digitenne. However, you can get the idea, if my wife thinks TV over FTTH is the same as DVB-T quality wise... than you're in deep trouble.
- Other problems have to do with the entire delivery process. There was a customer whose telephone line couldn't be found, probably for VDSL. There was a customer who found out on delivery that the price was different as quoted. There was one who thought he would get HD-TV in the cheapest pack and didn't get it.
- 1200 KPN Fiber customers were interviewed. 47% reported speeds weren't as promised. No explanation, probably because of the use of Wifi that speeds aren't up to snuff.. but try to explain that to a consumer.
Now as said at the start, in this programme, you're guilty. Not even until proven innocent. They'll have a talking head lawyer tell you that this is against the law etc etc.They'll have the socially inept discuss your product. They have someone who "works in IT". They'll tell people KPN uses coaxial cable into the home, whereas that's not the case of course. They won't look at the normal marketing material, which contains the caveats. They won't talk to people who are happy with what they got. But it doesn't matter. KPN messed up big time and it should have known it's too easy and too big a target not to shoot at. It's like painting a big bulls eye at the face of the CEO and then handing out pies at an amusement park.
That said, KPN's partner Reggefiber, who installs the Glashart network KPN uses and pays for it out of its own pocket, must be fuming. The way to mess up a billion euro project like Reggefiber's is to have untrustworthy partners. Instead of the likely thing to happen, that one of it's minor service providers, like Solcon, Lijbrandt, Tweak, Concepts or one of the other one's messes up, it's the big one. The one that is known to every one in the country and it takes everyone with them. KPN paid for a 41% share and caused almost as much damage.
Friday, 20 August 2010
Belgian hog uses 2.7TB, but how much money is that?
Ars Technica has the Belgian Bandwidth Hog story and even credits me, thanks Nate, but one element is missing, what does the little piggy cost?
2.7TBybte is roughly 9 mbit/s sustained traffic.
So the top downloader in Belgium is most likely still profitable to Telenet... though marginally
2.7TBybte is roughly 9 mbit/s sustained traffic.
- 1mbit/s/month of transit is $1 wholesale now in London and Amsterdam through Hurricane Electric -->9 dollar
- If you would work with a day and night rythm for the traffic, where the average peak is about twice the average--> 18 dollars. --> do understand that an ISP like Telenet will use peering too, which would result in a lower bandwidth bill.
- If you buy the traffic up front from a hosting company 20 euro per Terabyte retail --> 54 euro
- If you need to buy the traffic because you went over the traffic you bought up front it's 50 euro per Terabyte retail. --> 135 euro
So the top downloader in Belgium is most likely still profitable to Telenet... though marginally
Friday, 13 August 2010
Video: Why all telecom marketing and product management is wrong
Last year I gave two presentations at eComm Europe. Both were captured on video. The first one, on interconnection and telephone pricing, was up for some weeks. The second one, on telecom marketing and product management, is now available for your viewing pleasure. It aligns well with my previous blog post on choosing simplicity. Please if you have any comments send them.
And the presentation slides are here:
And the presentation slides are here:
Tuesday, 10 August 2010
New column on Nu Zakelijk: Choosing simplicity
I wrote a column on Nu Zakelijk for my employer: Logica. It's a combination of the Paradox of Choice (prof. Barry Schwartz)
and the Power of Free (Dan Ariely).
Both are very interesting concepts and linked to previous pieces I wrote on the greatest ISP in the world and why all telecom marketings and product management is messed up. Here is the Google Translation for those of you who think Dutch reads and sounds like a form of Klingon.
and the Power of Free (Dan Ariely).
Both are very interesting concepts and linked to previous pieces I wrote on the greatest ISP in the world and why all telecom marketings and product management is messed up. Here is the Google Translation for those of you who think Dutch reads and sounds like a form of Klingon.
Choosing Simplicity
| Released: | August 10, 2010 8:39 |
| Last edited: | August 10, 2010 8:39 |
Simplicity can be very rewarding. Disappears as the stress in consumer choice and cost savings a business organization.
By Rudolf van der Berg | Logica
It seems that almost every town now has an "unlimited meals" Chinese-Japanese restaurant . The principle is simple enough, the customer is free to take from an unlimited buffet or ordering the dishes on the menu. There are some rules: drinks not included and a fine for food left over.
The choice of customer options are reduced to a choice: do we eat here tonight or not. Yes, there is also a choice of dishes, but the choice for one another court does not. It is this limited choice that the formula for other interesting businesses.
Choice
Choice seems good. Any marketer can you explain, you have your product in order to segment all product-market combinations to serve. An ideal marke produces for every consumer the ideal product.
This requires not only a producer who knows what his customers want, but also a customer who knows exactly what his needs are and which supplier can meet these. And there lies his problem: many customers are not happy from a multitude of choices.
Satisfied
Scientific research shows that if a customer gets a lot of choices, the customer is less satisfied and chooses less . The paradox of choice that customers experience a stress choice and that choice stress leads to dissatisfaction with the choice (what else) and even to completely postpone a choice. (For a more detailed explanation, see this amazing video of Professor Barry Schwartz at TED).
That limiting choice in other sectors can work well, for example in France shown by ISPs. In the Netherlands can choose between a variety of subscriptions for different prices. The customer must choose between different Internet speeds, unlimited calling or not, or not HD Plus package.
Offer
In France, most, but Internet providers offer a quick internet with unlimited calls to landlines in France and many foreign countries and including HD TV. The customer receives a simple choice and do not go there to think about and thus avoids a lot of stress choice. This simplicity can also be achieved elsewhere.
Is the customer really waiting for a further tiered Internet, energy supply, zorgpolis or mortgage? Probably not. What customers want is, quick-acting and the Internet, a good insurance, stable energy prices and a fair mortgage.
The comprehensive simplicity translates to the supplier not only sell more, but also savings in the internal organization. A customer who is happy with the choice and no choice less stress, call the help desk, looks less at the competitor and the entire back office can be simplified.
Bonus
An extra bonus for the organization to simplify its product offering a choice is the addition of the word free product. By simplifying the supply and simultaneously increase sales in the package, certain elements "free" added to the product offering.
Lets just say one free of the most powerful words in marketing. A product that comes with free items is almost irresistible scientific research shows to see.
Think of a telecom product with free international calls, an insurance policy with free dental visit or a car with free navigation. A simple product with free features, that is what the customer wants.
Rudolf van der Berg Management Consultant for Business Logic Consulting. His work lies at the interface between government, telecom, energy and strategy.Rudolf.van.der.berg @ logica.com LinkedIn / Rudolf vander Berg
Saturday, 7 August 2010
KPN using CDMA450 for M2M communications
I knew this for a while already. Now it is on the wweb. KPN has moved to CDMA450 for M2M applications. CDMA450 offers DSL like speeds with very good propagation qualities. Bonus is that KPN only needs 50 sites to cover the country. As it is the only one who has this spectrum in The Netherlands, it might be an extremely valuable proporty to offer customers multi mode coverage. It's late so further speculation will have to wait. (thanks KH for the tip)
I hope to publish much more on M2M in the coming weeks. Mostly on the costs of switching operators and what the effect of some regulatory changes may be.
http://fmc.dotnet-services.nl/news.htm#Het_grote_KPN_geheim:_CDMA450_netwerk (DUTCH)
http://www.rcrwireless.com/ARTICLE/20100709/CUSTOMERS/100709962/-global-cdma-forum-how-one-dutch-carrier-is-using-cdma450-for-m2m (ENGLISH, thanks to B)
I hope to publish much more on M2M in the coming weeks. Mostly on the costs of switching operators and what the effect of some regulatory changes may be.
http://fmc.dotnet-services.nl/news.htm#Het_grote_KPN_geheim:_CDMA450_netwerk (DUTCH)
http://www.rcrwireless.com/ARTICLE/20100709/CUSTOMERS/100709962/-global-cdma-forum-how-one-dutch-carrier-is-using-cdma450-for-m2m (ENGLISH, thanks to B)
Thursday, 5 August 2010
I am a bonafide radio pundit now, 5 million heard me.. for 4 seconds
Yesterday I received an e-mail from the NPR radio programme Marketplace Morning Edition if I wanted to do an interview on the future of phone numbers in the light of Vonage and Facebook working together. I had a really nice phone call of about ten minutes with the editor that you hear in the segment, Jill Barsay. We discussed mr. Strowger and his competitors wife and Skype etc. etc. I tried to keep my answers to sound bites... quite hard to do, but fun.. So this afternoon I tune in to the website, find my piece and yes, I've been reduced to a 4 second blurb. :-) That's being a pundit for you. Listen to it, or read the transcript here:
Audio
Audio
transcript
Best thing is there is a memorisation expert in there, who had memorized a phone book. Great... now go and learn all the facebook accounts, URI's, e-mail adresses etc.
Monday, 2 August 2010
Most expensive and least expensive iPad data countries
Wired had this datafile on its website and I must say I am flabbergasted. It seems to bear little relationship to broadband data for fixed networks. For instance France is by far the most expensive. A gigabyte of data costs about as much as 1 month of unlimited calling to 100 nations, 28mbit DSL and HD-TV. Belgium is expensive too, just like their broadband, so no surprises there, but the Netherlands is a laggard too and data is cheap in NL. Germany is the exact opposite, it is a wired broadband laggard, but one of the cheapest countries when it comes to mobile data. Why a German Vodafone customer pays 15 times less per bit than a Dutch one is just baffling. Have fun with the data and tell me what you think.
Slide with your mouse over the countries and the prices to see more information, for instance that Europeans pay a hefty extra for buying Apple.
And here is a version that I hacked together to show the costs for the cheap version together with the expensive version. The sorting is still done by the expensive version, with the high usage, but the bar extends to the price per gigabyte of the cheap version. It's not perfect but it's getting there. Also I hacked together two versions that show per country what the price ranges of the operators are and per operator what different prices they charge in different countries. (T-Mobile NL was mislabelled by the original source and I can't fix that). Yet another version might be to show the differences in absolute prices, regardless of the amount of gigabytes. And I think the 30 Gigabytes that the original calculators used for the unlimited version is a bit too high, bringing down the lowest per Gigabyte charges too much.
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