5 and 10 euro with Google Earth image of Manhattan

 

This is certainly one of the nicest designs for money ever. On the one side Manhattan as it was 400 years ago and on the other side Manhattan as it is now as seen by Google Earth. You can literally feel Ground Zero. You can buy it online The design is by Ronald van Tienhoven

Also see this design from a  while back

Credit crisis hits KPN and Reggefiber's FTTH plans

The Dutch "Financieel Dagblad" reports that Reggefiber is finding it hard to find banks, both Dutch and foreign,  willing to loan it money for its ambitious €4 billion Fiber to the Home project. Reggefiber is operating in a joint venture with KPN.  KPN and Reggefiber are both paying 25% of the costs of the network. The other half needs to come from banks and they aren't willing. If they do loan money its in small tranches.

Reggefiber is now looking for pension funds and local governments to invest in its plans. The Dutch Ministry of Economic Affairs is looking into rules for local governments under what conditions they can invest in these plans.

The project has attracted alot of attention recently with its plans and the regulatory approval that the Dutch regulators OPTA and NMA gave to the joint venture. The whole Dutch telecommunications sector seems to be against the plan as most cable companies and alternative operators have filed objections to the regulatory approval.

How I calculated that the iPhone uses 640MB of mobile data/month

I got a question on how I reached the conclusion, that the iPhone uses on average  640MB of mobile data per month on T-mobile NL.

The T-mobile data I calculated from the combination of two news reports. They seem to have been mentioned by T-mobile in a press release that isn't publicly available. A press release in december does say that mobile data usage has grown 7-times since last year and is now at 2 terabytes per day. 

My calculation was based on data cited on Tweakers.net and Emerce.nl  and goes as follows:

Tweakers says that in December 2008 20,5TB per week was used by mobile users, in June this was 3.1TB. In Januari 2008 this was only 2.5TB per week. If we would have seen a "normal" growth rate, then T-mobile's weekly data usage should have been at 4.5TB maximum. The rest can be attributed to a phenomenon... being the iPhone 3G. 

Emerce.nl reports that there were 100.000 iphone users and also reports they use between 30 to 40 times more data  than normal mobile users. They also report that mobile data users Iphone and other use 67TB of data or 3TB per day. (It looks like they mixed up two numbers here, 67TB/30days is 2TB. So it looks like Tweakers is more accurate. 

So roughly mobile data usage is at 82TB/month, 18 is used by non-iphone users -->64TB is for 100,000 iPhone 3G users= 640MB (and 640 is a magical IT number, so I went with that one)

It's not perfect, but even if we allow for a 20% margin, it's still above half a gigabyte.

Must see video of trenching

Just imagine using this technology to lay FTTH :-)

Iphone users use 640MB/month

As reported yesterday, T-mobile NL saw a great increase in mobile data usage from the introduction of the iPhone 3G. The monthly usage of mobile increased from 12Terabyte to 80Terabyte a month How stunning a number that is, I only realized last night in bed. The average iPhone user uses 640MB per month. T-mobile also said it was 30-40 times more than the average mobile data user at 16-22MB per month. 

Telenet in Belgium has a Basicnet (fixed line internet) version that has a 1GB limit. I would suspect 20% of mobile users would hit that cap straight away. 

640MB isn't that expensive for T-Mobile NL. Even if they had no peerings, then it would still amount to less then 3 cents a month at €5/mbit/s/month (100GB) in Amsterdam. In Australia the costs would be 60 cents/user/month. (which also shows how much money is currently made on all you can eat data plans at €9.95, which are a top up on normal subscriptions)

However if this kind of usage continues to spread to users of other mobile devices then I do suspect mobile backhaul would be in serious need of an upgrade. On the other hand a standard DSL should be able to carry the traffic 

Mobile broadband customers want it, telco's don't get it

Four stories came together today:

1. T-Mobile NL reported that iPhone users surf the web 30-40 times more than other mobile data users. In the first half of 2008 the usage of mobile data at T-mobile grew from 2.5TB per week to 3.1TB per week. In the second half this grew from 3.1TB per week to 20.5TB per week. An eight fold increase !
2. Ars Technica reports that the mobile industry's price plan is discouraging the usage of mobile data. The way they do this is by giving every device a different price plan and discontinuing price plans that become too popular for their price bracket. The article also mentions devices like Kindle that come bundled with bandwidth but are often limited in what they can do over the network.
3. The iPhone App Store is the best App store around and we'll see it and other app stores making loads of money in the future. ABI projects mobile app sales to rise from "hundreds of millions of dollars" this year to over a billion dollars in 2010.
4. Orange and O2 in the UK are up in arms over Nokia's idea to put Skype by default on the N97. They threaten not to sell it on their networks . (Thanks to Hendrik Rood on Arch-econ-mailing list.) The best quote is: One operator source told Mobile: ‘This is another example of them trying to build an ecosystem that is all about Nokia and reduces the operator to a dumb pipe. Some people like 3 may be in a position where it could make sense to accept that. But if you spend upwards of £40m per year building your brand, you don’t want to be just a dumb pipe do you? ‘Nokia have tried several ways to own the customer over the years and operators have had to say no.’

What amazes me in the stories is that it shows that the holy Quadrangle is there:

1. Users want it

2. Device makers can make it

3. App developers have the software

4. Networks can deliver it

Except the last one, the network, doesn't want to play anymore. They are taking the football home, because they can't be the star player of the team. They don't want to be a bit pipe. "Yo no soy marinero, soy capitan". 

This is what is killing developments in the mobile market. The kid that has the football, but no talent to become the star of the field, only wants to play if it can be striker and make all the goals. It could have a great afternoon playing football. None of the other guys on the pitch wish it anything bad, they are willing to share their candy with the network. (nobody says networks shouldn't make a return and T-mobile NL made 352 million Ebitda on 1.8 billion turnover this year alone)

Why do we continue to let incompetent sales and marketing people call the shots at Mobile telco's? Accept that your a pipe... not a dumb one, but a smart one. Lean, mean, charging everyone who wants access and not involved in all the pipe dreams of the over the top providers. Tomtom, Amazon, Smart Meters need access for devices, sure pay a little and your my friend, Europe wide, sure.. 

If the telco got out of the way, bandwidth usage would grow through the roof, because all we really want is to be connected and communicate

A better calculation of the value of an internet exchange

Bill Norton, dr. Peering these days, has made a calculation of the value of an internet exchange . You may remember a similar article written by me a while ago. My calculation was back of an envelope type. Bill has a more scientifically sound calculation and a better list of things you need to account for. The numbers aren't too different: AMS-IX saves the industry roughly 25 million a year. Definitely worth a read and a great site to learn about peering and transit.

Me moving house fools Google Latitude

I enabled Google Latitude on my mobile phone, just to have a look at how it works. I must say it works pretty well. I had expected it to do so as the Google Maps program on my Nokia E51 was already pretty accurate in finding where I was. (600 meters is good enough in general).

Most of the time it seems to be using the GSM Cell-ID. The accuracy it provides is a good indicator. GSM is between 600 and 1500 meters, sometimes less. However, at home it's different. At home, in my house, the accuracy is off by 100 kilometers. The location it gives is the location of my old home in Rotterdam. I now live in Almere as of two months. I figured out that anywhere around the house where my wifi access point isn't visible, that's where I am in Almere, but not when my access point is visible. :-)

So if ever Google Latitude tells you you are in Rotterdam, while you are certain you are in Almere, that's when your within 30 meters of my house

Mobile telco's fail against Reding on mobile termination

Quite a bit on Mobile Termination fees in the news today . In the EU big Mobileco’s made a last ditch effort to persuade ms. Reding and mr. Barosso not to cut rates. In India new entrants asked the government to abolish mobile termination rates all together. India is a great example for the EU, on the effects of cutting mobile termination rates. In the EU the average mobile termination rate is 8.7 euro cent (and as high as 15.09 cent in Bulgaria) In India there is a proposal on the table to bring down mobile termination from 0.48 euro cent a minute to 0.16 euro cent per minute (or 1% of what the Bulgarians pay). Small operators of mobile networks even call for the full abolishment of termination charges. Meanwhile mobile usage in India has increased from '326 minutes per subscriber per month in October 2003 to 464 at present'. That's 2 times more than in the EU!

BTW the mobileco's are scaremongering when they say that their revenues will drop. What is most likely to happen when termination rates drop in the EU, is that the net outpayment from fixed lines to mobile lines will drop dramatically, saving users of fixed lines (old people and companies) a bundle. The ARPU's of mobileco's don't need to drop down dramatically as they can offer more minutes of use in bundles that cost about the same as current bundles. In the US and Singapore mobile termination fees don't exist and ARPU's are comparable or above those of the EU. ($29-46 in Singapore and $52 for T-mobile USA). Minutes of use in both countries is way higher than in the EU.

Now we'll have to wait until the negotiators of the T-mobile Germany, Vodafone UK, Telefonica and Orange France have frustrated the discussion in the European Council with the Commission enough

What Free (France) could do with a mobile licence

Chances are increasing that Free (the maverick DSL/Fibre Telco in France) could lay its hands on 5mhz of mobile spectrum (and maybe some more). Free's CEO Xavier Niel has promissed that he will drastically change the game for mobile calls and save the french consumer €1000 a year.

The French mobile incumbents must be worried as Free has changed the game in the French DSL market with its 30 euro pays all offer (and all literally means anything you can think of). Here are some ideas of what Free could/should offer that we are currently not seeing. (And yes you could also see this as my wishlist for mobile telco's)

1. No data charges (30 euro pays for all data and calls to fixed and to international numbers)
2. No SMS charges (He isn't charging for e-mails now is he?)
3. Integration of fixed and mobile calling. Who sais you can't call a fixed number to reach a mobile number. 
   
4. Integration of mobiles with online chat systems (MSN, Google chat, AIM etc)
5. Integration of mobiles with Free's harddisk recorders for television. Hook your mobile up with the HDD-recorder.USB, Wifi, 3G don't care :-)
6. Full integration of fixed and mobile networks: Piconets, DSL backhaul, FON-like Wifi access (hey Xavier, why don't you have FON-like wifi-access yet). If you're a customer, you can connect to my network
   
7. Cheap pre pay SIMs for foreign roamers. Niel started with providing cheap calls :-) Cheap roaming is dependent upon the operator of the foreigner roaming in France and requires the EU to get a clue.

Something that won't change is mobile termination fees. Unless the regulator fixes it. High costs for calling to mobile will remain in France. It's such a nice free money earner :-)

Anything I've forgotten that Free, given its position on the Telecom Cool Wall, would need to implement?